NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db7accfd140de1b7cb9fe6587b3374a87a21191e06ce88725137a12420a594a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Celtics | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Magic | 47c | 6,792$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.76 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.1 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Magic | 53c | 993.31$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.71 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Celtics | 47c | 983$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.87 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic | 46c | 259.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 44c | 247.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c9…01c9backed Magic | 45c | 194$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…0fc9backed Magic | 45c | 194$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Celtics | 53c | 193$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4308…9d1cbacked Celtics | 55c | 188$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…cd16backed Celtics | 55c | 186$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…8273backed Magic | 45c | 174$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…b79cbacked Magic | 45c | 172$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…b895backed Celtics | 55c | 167$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…c64bbacked Magic | 45c | 167$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +113%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd017…a1e7backed Celtics | 55c | 159$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03f…11debacked Celtics | 55c | 158$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Celtics | 56c | 151.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 45c | 142.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…6df7backed Celtics | 54c | 135.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1474…3454backed Celtics | 54c | 62.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Celtics | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Celtics | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Celtics | 49c | 40.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Celtics | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Magic | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Celtics vs. MagicMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.