NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce42d456354f6f06eaf62621ee37754f2c4621d0b3b4f72b5c65959ef54f8810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Under | 52c | 79,585$41,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,033.8 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 42,202$20,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,945 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 17,305$8,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,823.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 49c | 10,100$4,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,151 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 9,000$4,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,625 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 3,472$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 51c | 2,451$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,511$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.06 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 49c | 1,050$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…611cbacked Under | 51c | 979.88$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 412.06$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.07 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 52c | 408.46$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 312$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Under | 50c | 288.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Under | 51c | 207.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 52c | 121.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 52c | 84.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 52c | 57.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 48c | 57.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Celtics vs. MagicMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.