NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5910f72c6ad9cfa700bfda5511939c15cb24ca456998986cb9e473c9676daab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 41c | 592.11$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 46c | 506$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 41c | 457.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.22 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Celtics | 53c | 415$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.95 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Celtics | 59c | 395.54$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.37 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…e601backed Celtics | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Celtics | 58c | 190$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…8362backed Magic | 42c | 190$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1a…3a29backed Magic | 42c | 187$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…3f80backed Magic | 42c | 186$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…8bc4backed Magic | 42c | 186$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd017…a1e7backed Magic | 42c | 186$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…4e42backed Magic | 42c | 184$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…fd54backed Celtics | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…4adebacked Celtics | 58c | 179$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…ddb9backed Magic | 42c | 177$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…64d5backed Magic | 42c | 177$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…b895backed Celtics | 58c | 176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…ee4abacked Celtics | 58c | 176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…5c57backed Celtics | 58c | 176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd003…c5c2backed Celtics | 58c | 171.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…64f7backed Magic | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…f64bbacked Celtics | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…0fc9backed Magic | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…8d03backed Celtics | 58c | 169$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99d…3e32backed Celtics | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…8273backed Magic | 42c | 158$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…c64bbacked Magic | 42c | 158$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +113%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c9…01c9backed Magic | 42c | 156$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b6…ee42backed Magic | 42c | 156$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…cd16backed Celtics | 58c | 155$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…c511backed Celtics | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Magic | 41c | 149.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…5505backed Celtics | 58c | 148$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…d96abacked Celtics | 58c | 148$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…ddb8backed Celtics | 58c | 148$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…f41dbacked Celtics | 58c | 145$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Magic | 42c | 124$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Celtics | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Magic | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Celtics | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Celtics | 58c | 60.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…7fdfbacked Celtics | 59c | 44.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Celtics | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1972…ba8cbacked Celtics | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Celtics | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics | 56c | 26.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…fd58backed Celtics | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Celtics | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Celtics vs. MagicMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.