NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36524d919ae8b543ed03e23047675f7a08405cf500c9358367a4533bf00bd37d

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Magicof Magic, Celtics
Resolved: Nov 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $69,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,223 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Magic	52c	21,942$11,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,532.28	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Magic	49c	10,895$5,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,556.67	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac25…433fbacked Celtics	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,100	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Celtics	48c	10,000$4,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,800	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Celtics	50c	7,777$3,889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,888.5	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Magic	50c	7,351$3,675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,675.38	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Celtics	48c	6,200$2,976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,976	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics	49c	5,847$2,884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,883.99	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Magic	51c	3,573$1,822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,750.55	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Celtics	52c	2,826$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.62	155	49.7%77 W · 78 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	48c	2,294$1,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,192.88	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Magic	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.08	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Celtics	49c	1,703$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$841.6	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Magic	50c	1,414$707 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$707	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Celtics	51c	1,314$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670.14	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Magic	49c	1,309$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$667.59	853	47.9%409 W · 444 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Celtics	45c	833$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.85	381	51.2%195 W · 186 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…e02abacked Celtics	4c	700$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c9…1a9dbacked Celtics	48c	625$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Celtics	50c	513$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.5	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Celtics	51c	491.25$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.29	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics	50c	456$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.22	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics	50c	393$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.18	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Magic	50c	350$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Magic	49c	338.12$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.98	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic	48c	312$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.24	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	55c	293$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.85	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164d…8893backed Celtics	48c	288$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.24	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Celtics	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…2fccbacked Celtics	49c	222.45$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe8…5c57backed Magic	49c	207$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.57	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x542b…ddb9backed Celtics	51c	202$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.02	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+46%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Celtics	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	430	52.3%225 W · 205 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa4…b79cbacked Magic	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+52%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c67…63fcbacked Magic	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	133	59.4%79 W · 54 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Magic	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3e…1726backed Magic	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf926…c2e2backed Celtics	49c	190$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.1	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6262…8c43backed Magic	49c	186$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.86	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2783…f64bbacked Celtics	51c	185$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb2…0183backed Magic	49c	180$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d7e…4adebacked Celtics	51c	176$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99d…3e32backed Magic	49c	175.99$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.76	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bbc…4e24backed Celtics	51c	175$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.25	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Magic	52c	175$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	309	45.3%140 W · 169 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Magic	52c	173.08$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.08	88	50%44 W · 44 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea1…f41dbacked Celtics	51c	162$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.62	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Celtics	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Celtics	52c	130.77$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Magic	50c	110$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Magic	49c	101.69$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.69	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Magic	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	235	50.2%118 W · 117 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5937…cc97backed Magic	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	63	57.1%36 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…a43fbacked Magic	50c	86$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed21…a2a1backed Magic	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162e…94a4backed Magic	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-4.7wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Celtics	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	224	42.9%96 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6267…39aabacked Magic	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Magic	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc31…9e28backed Celtics	52c	42.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Magic	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-6.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Magic	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Magic	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Celtics	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	154	48.7%75 W · 79 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2a…845bbacked Magic	50c	38.4$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Celtics	47c	37.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf1…e774backed Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	199	57.8%115 W · 84 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c65…f62abacked Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc081…f7c7backed Celtics	50c	36.82$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e0f…7037backed Magic	50c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Magic	50c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Celtics	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	50.9%88 W · 85 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Magic	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed Magic	48c	29.98$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.59	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	50c	26.32$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.16	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc286…d936backed Magic	50c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f15…4ea4backed Magic	50c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x406b…a824backed Celtics	52c	23.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b14…6988backed Magic	50c	21.66$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.83	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc264…eb32backed Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5470…f84ebacked Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc609…f29abacked Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2337…3a2cbacked Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5b0bbacked Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c28…bc2cbacked Magic	52c	19.27$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.25	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)this page
1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
Celtics vs. MagicMagic won
Celtics vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
Celtics vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event