TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,528

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,176 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c3,382$1,490 inLost-$1,490.049,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Over56c3,036$1,700 inWon+$1,335.718347%39 W · 44 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under44c326.09$144 inLost-$143.6780148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Under43c280$121 inLost-$121.441848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over56c200$112 inWon+$8812950.4%65 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Over55c200$110 inWon+$901,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over56c176$99 inWon+$77.442,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…b040backed Under44c176$77 inLost-$77.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6262…8c43backed Under44c172$76 inLost-$75.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x096c…0e66backed Over57c169$96 inWon+$72.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5122…3ba9backed Over56c163$91 inWon+$71.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Under45c148$67 inLost-$66.636148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over56c130$73 inWon+$57.224955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under43c102.75$44 inLost-$44.181,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under44c100$44 inLost-$4434645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Over57c71.18$41 inWon+$30.615743.9%25 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95e6…1611backed Over57c51.86$30 inWon+$22.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8f…df4bbacked Over57c31.58$18 inWon+$13.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over47c31.57$15 inWon+$16.7347144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Over56c26.79$15 inWon+$11.797955.7%44 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ef…186bbacked Over56c20$11 inWon+$8.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Over59c20$12 inWon+$8.248255%265 W · 217 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.