NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45728b7033646bc97128bd247c3b79388ce405338eebe8d2297a69dd51cb39ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc933…5366backed Over | 53c | 25,000$13,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,750 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 47c | 11,111$5,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,222.17 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Under | 47c | 10,919$5,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,131.93 | 260 | 38.1%99 W · 161 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Under | 48c | 5,500$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 5,494$2,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 47c | 1,991$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.62 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,327$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…b4b5backed Under | 47c | 1,058$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…c88ebacked Under | 47c | 877$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 706.35$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…5d8cbacked Under | 49c | 612.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…a21bbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…5b01backed Over | 53c | 365$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…11f4backed Over | 56c | 339.96$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed Under | 48c | 325$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 192.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f37…b87ebacked Under | 47c | 181$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…8b3ebacked Over | 55c | 174$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b85…300fbacked Under | 47c | 170$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…1a4ebacked Under | 47c | 168$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…b456backed Over | 55c | 162$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…1d8ebacked Over | 55c | 158$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 55c | 116.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 46c | 109.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…8bf7backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…e67abacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 55c | 55.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 53c | 48.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…5ab0backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…7659backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…1524backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b9d4backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…a080backed Under | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be0…7491backed Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 49c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Celtics vs. MagicMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.