MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8200c0737adfc427f9e7eea886085418665a9ddc90dbaab85a55825855ba82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x798c…88d5backed New York Mets | 0c | 10,530$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 5,605$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,363 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked New York Mets | 65c | 4,641$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 3,016$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 2,791$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.39 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.98 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked New York Mets | 74c | 1,234$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.24 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 1,132$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.99 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed New York Mets | 63c | 999.99$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.99 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Mets | 63c | 736.81$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.19 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…cdd1backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 730.63$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 721.18$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.43 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked New York Mets | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New York Mets | 62c | 579.52$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.25 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 526$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.12 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed New York Mets | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed New York Mets | 59c | 377.97$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.37 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked New York Mets | 45c | 268.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 245.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.86 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 206.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Mets | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Mets | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Mets | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 56.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed New York Mets | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed New York Mets | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Mets | 64c | 32.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed New York Mets | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.