Champions League · resolved market
Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eb9b80bc1e25812b44b5326f16d3649263c31fa7fc9435cc64f2b813cc7161d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 62c | 12,879$7,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,894.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 12,678$4,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,832.07 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Under | 39c | 4,120$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 60c | 2,473$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.86 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 38c | 2,028$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.85 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 39c | 1,124$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.39 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…5d74backed Under | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…7661backed Over | 63c | 608$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…4399backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…6879backed Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 62c | 482.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.65 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 62c | 450$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 39c | 447.81$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 37c | 443.96$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.26 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…a742backed Over | 61c | 374.27$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 28c | 348.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 60c | 333.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Under | 51c | 309.78$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 62c | 273$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Under | 45c | 272.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 57c | 266$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…9df7backed Over | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 167.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf9…086cbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…b9a4backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 37c | 147.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 60c | 146.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Over | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x823f…d2eebacked Over | 62c | 116.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…13cdbacked Under | 39c | 116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 34c | 113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Over | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…bdf3backed Over | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36b…cfe0backed Over | 62c | 91.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…0e18backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Under | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…7fc3backed Over | 62c | 58.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 198 | 56.6%112 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 66c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…cc42backed Over | 63c | 39.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 39c | 38.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 62c | 37.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…599bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…c95cbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4e…3725backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…845abacked Over | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed Over | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.