NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eda399a924c5ed1945d8a7c286c0795faf7381cc704212360e56d5f3525d215
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 6,304$3,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.82 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 48c | 5,208$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 3,994$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.12 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Over | 47c | 2,100$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.5 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 1,012$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.88 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Under | 51c | 988$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.12 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 368.35$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 289.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 283$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 230.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 223$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 52c | 153$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 52c | 148$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 47c | 135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Over | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Panthers won
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Panthers won
- Seahawks vs. PanthersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 28.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 38.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-8.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.