NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e435f4d4030327fb6fec7b254fba1d1d4464fd6de81719a7ebea8c2bc0e2daf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Seahawks, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Panthers | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Seahawks | 45c | 605.34$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.4 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Seahawks | 45c | 322.7$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Seahawks | 50c | 256$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Panthers | 50c | 256$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…3984backed Seahawks | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Panthers | 47c | 177.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Panthers | 47c | 151$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Panthers | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…366bbacked Panthers | 54c | 111.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…9f00backed Seahawks | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Panthers | 47c | 92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Seahawks | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Seahawks | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Seahawks | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Panthers | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Seahawks | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Seahawks | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Seahawks | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Seahawks | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Seahawks | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Seahawks | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Seahawks | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Panthers | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Seahawks | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Seahawks | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Seahawks | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Seahawks | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Seahawks | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Seahawks | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Panthers won
- Seahawks vs. PanthersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 28.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 38.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 42.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-8.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.