Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0765ab90e5ca3efff0ed2f776cec85f8350edd80c5c0b2b857e62cbd161c97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,520$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.74 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 70c | 1,368$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.33 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 1,319$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.22 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 41c | 817.79$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.16 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 576$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 74c | 571.88$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 524.03$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 42c | 487.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 455.1$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 415.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 73c | 305.29$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 296.01$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 280.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 270$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 32c | 260.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 79c | 249.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 228.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.99 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 192.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 181$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 70c | 173.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 171.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 43c | 165.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 66c | 161.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 160.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 158.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 156.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 155.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 152.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 152.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 68c | 151.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 145.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 50c | 140.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 125.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 71c | 124.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked No | 53c | 122.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 29c | 121.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 38c | 116.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 114$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 62c | 112.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 50c | 104.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 35c | 101.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 100.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 76c | 96.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 29c | 89.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 50c | 88.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 51c | 86.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked No | 51c | 86.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed No | 50c | 85.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 71c | 85.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 50c | 85.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed No | 50c | 82.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 81.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 79.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 75c | 77.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 76.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 75.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 20c | 75.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 30c | 72.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 71.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 70.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed No | 71c | 70.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 65c | 69.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 68.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 67.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 68c | 65.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…d16bbacked No | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…595abacked No | 43c | 63.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 62.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…7659backed No | 52c | 61.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 49c | 60.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 59.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 59.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 41c | 55.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 54.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 50c | 53.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 53.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 29c | 53.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fc…4b70backed No | 53c | 51.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 59c | 50.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 49.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 51c | 49.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 48.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 55c | 46.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 46.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 33c | 45.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 44.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 48c | 44.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.