Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda0f736fedc237f408f637b3f359cdbb1907eff4fa74ca47a2259fc81756a07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 768.14$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 576$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 18c | 551.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 42c | 476.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 43c | 463.76$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 55c | 417.69$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.96 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 33c | 412.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 42c | 405.26$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.3 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 354.79$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 341.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 336.5$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 330.53$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 33c | 266.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 29c | 260.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes | 42c | 250$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 44c | 231.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 39c | 206.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 41c | 206.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 8c | 189.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 170.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 164.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 163.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 58c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 37c | 147.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 142.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 26c | 130.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 124.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 119.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 46c | 109.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 105.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 29c | 103.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 100.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 40c | 99.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 58c | 95.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 64c | 93.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 91.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 57c | 85.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 82.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 82.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 41c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 76.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30c…ebb2backed Yes | 44c | 72.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 70.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 68.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 67.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 39c | 66.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 65.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 33c | 62.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 59.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 57c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 55.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 55.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 53.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 55c | 53.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 55c | 53.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 31c | 52.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes | 23c | 52.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 50.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…ab27backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 46.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 45.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 45.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 56c | 44.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed No | 65c | 43.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed No | 56c | 43.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 33c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 39c | 42.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 50c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 41.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 55c | 41.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 26c | 40.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 72c | 39.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…7151backed Yes | 44c | 36.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 35.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 36c | 35.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 34.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 34.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 31.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 59c | 31.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 31.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.