NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1733f60fae2156be9f699617ea0818c2ac46100e557def10cc327694cccd53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 51c | 25,592$13,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,412.64 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 19,951$9,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,807.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 10,298$4,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,943 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 52c | 9,901$5,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,752.32 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Over | 49c | 5,357$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,731.9 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 46c | 3,663$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.05 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 55c | 3,550$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.26 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 3,230$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.99 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 2,931$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.52 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 1,797$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.44 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 47c | 1,318$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.82 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed Over | 52c | 1,024$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.4 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 778$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.97 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 717.51$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.56 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 575$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 446.31$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 49c | 291$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 284$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Under | 47c | 213.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Over | 55c | 139.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 45c | 137.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 45c | 113.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 53c | 90.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Under | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 45c | 63.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…197abacked Under | 50c | 49.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked Under | 51c | 48.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.26per pick | 58cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 51c | 41.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…35cebacked Under | 51c | 31.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…62c7backed Under | 48c | 30.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…5d9fbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…82aabacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Heat won
- Trail Blazers vs. HeatHeat won
- Trail Blazers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.