NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848c8a98f676e42423dd980ec7fae940cc18eac0b86162bb7a606fc730ec93fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Trail Blazers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $697,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $697,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $697,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 567,165$293,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293,812.91 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 48c | 267,068$128,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138,545.67 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Heat | 49c | 172,254$84,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,368.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 48c | 62,806$30,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,714.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Heat | 47c | 45,000$21,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,750 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Heat | 49c | 22,000$10,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,220 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 18,181$9,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,867.55 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heat | 47c | 16,120$7,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,513.65 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 48c | 15,949$7,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,322.29 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 14,043$7,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,021.5 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 10,725$5,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.61 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Heat | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 47c | 5,176$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.83 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 5,067$2,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.32 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Heat | 49c | 4,654$2,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.03 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat | 47c | 1,987$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.73 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Heat | 48c | 1,985$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.21 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Trail Blazers | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 40c | 1,686$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 49c | 1,487$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat | 49c | 985$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.35 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 48c | 961.24$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 49c | 525.02$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 46c | 478$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.21 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Heat | 48c | 401.81$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Heat | 49c | 165$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 46c | 152.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Heat | 48c | 143$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Heat | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Heat | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Heat | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Heat | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Heat | 49c | 81.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 67.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Heat | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…a537backed Heat | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heat | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked Heat | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Heat | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…1cf2backed Heat | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Heat | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…fccebacked Heat | 49c | 30.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Heat | 48c | 29.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…62c7backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 28.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…dfa3backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…09ddbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Heat won
- Trail Blazers vs. HeatHeat won
- Trail Blazers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.