NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f38bccd0b0f6bc6b912f663a3fc8f3b1f711dfb698e1332b4d25487f3f54032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns | 56c | 5,540$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.3 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 2,958$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.09 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Suns | 54c | 2,048$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.65 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,803$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,707$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,273$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.65 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,080$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.2 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns | 54c | 617.21$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.73 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 508.39$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.7 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Suns | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 54c | 302.79$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 280$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Suns | 54c | 167.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Suns | 56c | 125.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Suns | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 56.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 53.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 49.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Suns | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Suns | 56c | 38.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd27…4721backed Suns | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Suns | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 34.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 25.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)this page
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. SunsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 221.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.