TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$343,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$343,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns51c85,213$43,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,217.752,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns51c26,000$13,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,179.761,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Trail Blazers50c21,332$10,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,667.1626648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Trail Blazers50c20,730$10,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,326.6925753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Trail Blazers50c20,300$10,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,15010949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Trail Blazers50c18,082$9,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,040.9845850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns51c16,409$8,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,368.5387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Trail Blazers48c14,000$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,28048352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Suns50c13,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers49c11,750$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,049.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Trail Blazers48c11,555$5,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,008.624053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaccb…61dcbacked Trail Blazers50c10,966$5,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,482.863171%22 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+33.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Trail Blazers49c10,462$5,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,358.81,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns50c9,064$4,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,542.487750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers49c8,825$4,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,509.644,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Suns52c7,248$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.6365750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns52c7,000$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Trail Blazers49c6,684$3,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,408.6716640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Suns50c6,500$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,25058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1201,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers49c5,554$2,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,830.844,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Trail Blazers49c5,478$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,790.8470246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Trail Blazers49c5,102$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.6713142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Trail Blazers51c4,903$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.710553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Trail Blazers49c4,155$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.9330446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Suns50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Suns50c4,000$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Trail Blazers50c3,600$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Trail Blazers50c3,459$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.8664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Suns50c3,450$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7251,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Suns51c2,867$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.6389050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Trail Blazers50c2,837$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.432150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Trail Blazers47c2,625$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.2523052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Trail Blazers52c2,467$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.3424653.3%131 W · 115 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Trail Blazers50c2,194$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0978765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Trail Blazers48c2,147$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.2437747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns50c2,073$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.843,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Trail Blazers49c2,025$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.6422643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Trail Blazers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Trail Blazers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00042648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Trail Blazers49c1,935$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.312,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Suns51c1,700$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.5350653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Trail Blazers48c1,599$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.6631551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Suns52c1,565$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.8717042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns50c1,507$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.386,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Trail Blazers51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73548957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Trail Blazers49c1,477$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.2417550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns50c1,417$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.14,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Trail Blazers48c1,388$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.532450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Suns50c1,379$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.3819147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Suns52c1,215$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers49c1,201$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.262,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Trail Blazers48c1,118$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.4323850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Suns52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52033146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Trail Blazers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Trail Blazers51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49021139.8%84 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Trail Blazers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Suns50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Suns49c998.91$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.4757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Suns50c954.99$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.53050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Trail Blazers51c868.63$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.6319359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9931…ea8cbacked Trail Blazers47c853.02$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.12944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Trail Blazers48c683.12$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.1617953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Suns50c639.32$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6644352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Trail Blazers50c604.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.0838946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Suns52c599.97$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.9916148.4%78 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Trail Blazers51c590$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.115154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Trail Blazers50c574.01$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1951354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Trail Blazers49c518.46$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.872,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Suns50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25049345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Trail Blazers48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4113…e904backed Trail Blazers48c483.33$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.335048%24 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Trail Blazers49c478.97$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.2713151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Suns51c468.62$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23941652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked Trail Blazers50c454.99$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.52470.8%17 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers49c429.67$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.573,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Trail Blazers47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.531,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns52c408$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.161,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Trail Blazers50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20036450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97e…ea6fbacked Trail Blazers51c394.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.862445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Trail Blazers51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1620237.1%75 W · 127 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Suns51c390.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6721854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9684…16ecbacked Trail Blazers49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.123060%18 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Trail Blazers47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15941050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Suns49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Trail Blazers50c264.8$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.440546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers48c254.65$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.521,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Suns42c241.96$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.955846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Trail Blazers51c240.42$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8126043.8%114 W · 146 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Suns49c209.8$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.891148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers53c206.48$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.023,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Trail Blazers49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0848546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Trail Blazers48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10495548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Suns50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c55…98ffbacked Trail Blazers51c196$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.041050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Suns51c196$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.981,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe86…6763backed Suns53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers67c181.81$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.68,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Trail Blazers51c177.4$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8316947.3%80 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Suns50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8023847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.