Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa18e10d5e6c6d8a1b34e452cb13d9f22dea14c4f10393ba14dccc955e825c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 3,506$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.47 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 3,177$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.74 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 26c | 1,600$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.91 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 27c | 1,035$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.58 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 75c | 974.78$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.26 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 937.18$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.53 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 894.94$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 16c | 649.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 8c | 587.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 512.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 23c | 266.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 172 | 18.6%32 W · 140 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…994dbacked Over | 24c | 218.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 145 | 26.2%38 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 27c | 210$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 75c | 183.62$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 27c | 177.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9200…1b9bbacked Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 26c | 124.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 75c | 83.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 74c | 82.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,144 | 39.2%448 W · 696 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 75c | 80.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 75c | 80.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 355 | 49.9%177 W · 178 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 75c | 53.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 74c | 53.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 311 | 49.5%154 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 74c | 32.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 74c | 30.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 74c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 75c | 20.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 3.5this page
- Mexico vs. Australia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Australia (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Australia won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Australia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.