MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fac9b607843d67aba0a680bc565756d855508859e43d7d325270c5f59086701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked New York Yankees | 39c | 3,252$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.87 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8c00backed New York Yankees | 35c | 2,691$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.43 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 2,048$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.56 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 689$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.29 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 588.79$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.16 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 466$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 442$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 43c | 351.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 315.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Yankees | 36c | 251.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.27 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 38c | 228$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 56c | 224.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 170.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 45c | 143.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed New York Yankees | 15c | 137.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 111.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed New York Yankees | 26c | 107.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 105.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 45c | 84.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 78.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…6761backed New York Yankees | 35c | 67.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed New York Yankees | 39c | 66.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Yankees | 37c | 57.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 50.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 46.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 55c | 44.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 40.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed New York Yankees | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 33.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 32.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 29.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 25.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 20.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 17.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…faeebacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 15.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed New York Yankees | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.