MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261c92b5ddbf64413a57fb7b8051ca7f5314f56350925fec13f69b4bda3fecb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 48c | 25,181$12,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,087.1 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over | 49c | 12,000$5,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,880 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Under | 52c | 8,054$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,865.92 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 3,065$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.05 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 1,796$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.08 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,749$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 51c | 1,309$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.41 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 52c | 987.9$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.19 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 64c | 972$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 952.98$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.51 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 792.55$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 624.63$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.58 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 522$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…929bbacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 20c | 378.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 346.58$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Under | 61c | 340.98$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 47c | 319$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 260.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 64c | 235.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 198.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 53c | 183.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 152.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 65c | 144.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 51c | 137$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 69c | 135.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 125.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 53c | 107.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 21c | 107.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…8595backed Over | 47c | 105.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Over | 46c | 100.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 60c | 76.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Over | 48c | 72.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 71.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…b7b3backed Under | 66c | 65.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 65.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 53c | 53.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 51.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 50.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 75c | 43.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 35.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 34.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…3658backed Under | 65c | 33.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 48c | 30.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…4e60backed Over | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 54c | 29.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Under | 53c | 26.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 62c | 22.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 58c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.