MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fb5b1eaa9666bae17fef4af246faa1bddff040aa2eafa19fe7ea934bf36db14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 55c | 2,924$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.08 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 56c | 1,739$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.6 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 45c | 1,203$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.86 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 53c | 1,160$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.95 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 45c | 1,046$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.87 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Over | 44c | 842.87$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.01 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 762.03$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 549.1$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 56c | 521.57$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.08 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Over | 45c | 429.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.38 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 45c | 429.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.38 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 380$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 372.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 355.91$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 325.32$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.24 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 29c | 299.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.01 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 27c | 261.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 71c | 173.9$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 153.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 141.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 66c | 134.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 59c | 117.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 28c | 111.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…6c9fbacked Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 44c | 87.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Over | 44c | 82.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 52c | 82.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 80.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…c84abacked Under | 58c | 78.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 67.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 73c | 65.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 45c | 61.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 59.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 38.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 26.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 49c | 24.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 51c | 20.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 67c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.