MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fca19904c5ecce7cc4fb24f9ee8ba25935d456e420f526ac3a52b0a9ac6bc82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 1,757$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.89 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 56c | 1,328$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.66 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 44c | 1,083$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.43 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 55c | 999.99$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.09 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 44c | 859.6$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked No | 56c | 516.25$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.25 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 55c | 465$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 55c | 457.02$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.02 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 447.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 437.75$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.61 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 316.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked No | 56c | 249.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 56c | 215$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 45c | 124.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 48c | 119.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 56c | 99.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed No | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 44c | 79.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed No | 52c | 70.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 55c | 45.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 53c | 44.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked No | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…6690backed No | 56c | 42.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 32c | 39.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 46c | 36.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…9729backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…43a3backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.