MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f766f08238d30789dc47ccb785adc3b7edde4e252251cc369da543cbbe7319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39af…dd9dbacked New York Yankees | 8c | 6,071$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 29c | 853.2$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 21c | 751$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 552.5$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 507.94$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed New York Yankees | 8c | 386.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 358.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 24c | 335.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 32c | 310$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 19c | 298$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees | 30c | 208.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Yankees | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 179.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 29c | 158.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed New York Yankees | 29c | 144.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed New York Yankees | 28c | 135.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 24c | 124.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 95.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 94.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 56.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Yankees | 29c | 42.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Yankees | 29c | 42.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 36.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.