La Liga · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd878985e7afff9d6705d5a3dc7fb900b6595ad5c6da9ca3d7c11a6b2b411d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 1,604$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.67 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 563.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 16c | 537.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 390$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 27c | 358.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 103 | 29.1%30 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 76c | 299.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 80c | 256.25$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Under | 79c | 252.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 20c | 236.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 18c | 218$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…5737backed Under | 80c | 192.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 27c | 165.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Over | 28c | 72.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 24c | 59.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 80c | 57.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 211 | 39.8%84 W · 127 L | -15.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Under | 75c | 32.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 78c | 27.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Under | 75c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: Elche CF (-2.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.