Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70221c780909743cbd493c79915760da980c99f9aa41b2c6da4a2ea4cec4b5ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19a1…5f66backed No | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 894.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 14c | 761.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…4ccfbacked No | 80c | 607.98$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…93efbacked No | 2c | 589.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 57c | 528.23$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.77 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 434.42$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.07 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 346.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 10c | 341.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…84dcbacked Yes | 79c | 318.02$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 294.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 35c | 282.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…de43backed No | 39c | 240.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 20c | 219.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 61c | 211.85$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 66c | 188.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 78c | 183.2$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 172.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 46c | 154.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99c7…9acfbacked Yes | 69c | 144.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 139.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 138.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 76c | 136.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 67c | 136.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 68c | 126.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…52a2backed Yes | 75c | 125.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…633dbacked Yes | 35c | 122.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 51c | 94.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 61c | 87.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 12c | 86.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 83.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 74.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 69.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 59.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 58c | 56.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 26c | 53.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 56c | 49.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 80c | 49.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dc…a474backed Yes | 40c | 47.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 41.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 70c | 41.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 65c | 41.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 35c | 41.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 37c | 37.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…d30fbacked No | 36c | 35.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 70c | 34.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 33.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 33.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 47c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 46c | 30.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…0732backed Yes | 45c | 30.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 60c | 24.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 44c | 24.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 74c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Yes | 71c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.