Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70319333fc3cdb25e9c9ce8f62710d5a7b76d3011e9d52325e3374f753b50b86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 2,266$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,526$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 835.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 17c | 816.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 802.11$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 599.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 29c | 480.42$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 456.34$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 12c | 264.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 248.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 233.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 225.02$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 13c | 198.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 20c | 188.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 44c | 180.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 12c | 174.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…59c9backed Yes | 15c | 161.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 36c | 160$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 10c | 151.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 149.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 147.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 134.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 119.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 114.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 102.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 33c | 98.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 66c | 96.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 32c | 87.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 15c | 72.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 71.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 67.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 59.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f901backed Yes | 22c | 54.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…68d8backed Yes | 32c | 35.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 33.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 75c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 70c | 27.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 51c | 26.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.