Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x704334283040a36c36c4080e6eb067004b3138dc3119a17f7defb6d8ef75480a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 3,956$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,006$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 770.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 649.95$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.44 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 577.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 551.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 10c | 479.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 364.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 20c | 354.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 21c | 345$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 327.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 314.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 76c | 248.94$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…4325backed Yes | 20c | 236.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 11c | 219.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 9c | 219.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 14c | 214.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 15c | 199.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 189.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 22c | 182.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 182.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 166.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 165.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 10c | 154.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 149.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 143.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 15c | 142$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 138.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 128.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 19c | 104.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 27c | 102.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 16c | 101.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 16c | 98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 95.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 92.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 85.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 15c | 75.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 19c | 64.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 17c | 63.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 23c | 59.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 58.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 55.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 52.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f007backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 46.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 80c | 37.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 79c | 27.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 26.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 24.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 23.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 79c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 79c | 18.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed No | 80c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.