MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c2bb4f98fe924791d5d0efef45119893929cf390fcab7919e633297e1b696c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 50c | 6,056$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.01 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 5,725$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.56 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed New York Mets | 49c | 462.07$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.41 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 447.01$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 212$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Mets | 50c | 142.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 110.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked New York Mets | 50c | 108.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Mets | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 82.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 82.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed New York Mets | 55c | 56.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 55.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…62babacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 54.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 47.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Mets | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 39.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed New York Mets | 47c | 38.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked New York Mets | 49c | 30.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed New York Mets | 50c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked New York Mets | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.