MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b3ea28cbcc53d12b6464d206c269fdec54744c4f527d3f9f67208750e720943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 39c | 4,409$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,154$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.02 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed New York Mets | 38c | 1,070$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.6 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 1,050$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 1,010$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.8 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 39c | 990.59$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 682.01$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.62 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 506.94$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.91 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 244.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 201.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Mets | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 167.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…391fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked New York Mets | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 29c | 114.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed New York Mets | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Mets | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 76.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 56.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…b6dcbacked New York Mets | 40c | 53.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 37.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…4f16backed New York Mets | 40c | 37.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Mets | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Mets | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 40c | 31.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 25.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed New York Mets | 40c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…a58fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.