MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x506fd25f077bc0d9bab114c55a78755ded002d63a2e782bc38d9ce99ac3f92a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Under | 47c | 3,415$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.88 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,355$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,957$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,907$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,323$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 953$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 57c | 644.58$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.23 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 47c | 629.61$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.84 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 403.34$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.96 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 58c | 267.24$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 51c | 244.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 228$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 41c | 225$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 212.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 41c | 205$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 43c | 197.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 43c | 190.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 145$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 107.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 101.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 100.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 41c | 95.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 32c | 91.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 65c | 90.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 59c | 83.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed Under | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2a…4b25backed Under | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 52.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 56c | 52.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 62c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 69c | 39.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 37.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 51c | 32.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 46c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 24.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 61c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 75c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.