MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc6caa2eaecded1f2aeafc509d6e301e443b8a952530cc1bdebb3b2f12dccd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 50c | 2,722$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.66 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 2,423$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 1,377$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 981.57$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 59c | 829.19$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.97 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 768.94$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.05 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 37c | 612.95$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.79 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 41c | 526$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.88 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 502.63$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Under | 62c | 403.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.65 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 287.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 51c | 248$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 242.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 31c | 230$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 70c | 230$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 44c | 199.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 197.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 61c | 195.34$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 41c | 181.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…3af7backed Over | 54c | 179.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 41c | 147$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 145.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 54c | 111.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 55c | 107.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Over | 56c | 106.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 23c | 101.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 96.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 41c | 91.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 41c | 91.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 41c | 91.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 39c | 87.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 84.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 47c | 52.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed Over | 48c | 50.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 49.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 25c | 48.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Over | 34c | 39.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 54c | 37.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 36.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 59c | 34.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 46c | 34.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Over | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Over | 66c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…4406backed Over | 61c | 23.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked Over | 59c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…7d38backed Over | 45c | 22.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Under | 51c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 63c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 57c | 19.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.