MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60cc9c55da559719c115bf4769ed64c598d449af8e426738f6a93f511dd90d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 46c | 4,798$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 56c | 3,329$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 74c | 2,685$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 1,380$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 1,379$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.54 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 1,379$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.54 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 1,128$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 1,018$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.64 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 1,018$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.57 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets | 36c | 786.86$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 741.27$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 678.54$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.42 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 492.47$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.34 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 51c | 392.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 376.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 376.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 286.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 286.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 240.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 230.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed New York Mets | 38c | 223.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 218.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 203.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Mets | 39c | 177$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 174$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 158.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cincinnati Reds | 10c | 149.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed New York Mets | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 118.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 96.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed New York Mets | 38c | 83.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 83.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked New York Mets | 36c | 80.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 69.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 67.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked New York Mets | 54c | 61.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 56.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 56.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 52.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 52.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed New York Mets | 39c | 41.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd558…a218backed New York Mets | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed New York Mets | 44c | 23.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed New York Mets | 80c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked New York Mets | 80c | 14.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.