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Champions League · resolved market

Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821d…cf16backed Under52c1,060$556 inWon+$503.596144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over46c1,023$472 inLost-$472.378318.1%15 W · 68 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under57c765.74$440 inWon+$326.181,14135.4%404 W · 737 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afc…317abacked Over31c290.32$90 inLost-$901233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over38c148.26$56 inLost-$56.3442850.2%215 W · 213 L+25.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc135…d871backed Over52c130.77$68 inLost-$68560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd32b…404ebacked Over53c101.01$54 inLost-$53.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05ec…f767backed Under51c98.22$50 inWon+$48.131650%8 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1306…c689backed Over53c94.34$50 inLost-$506553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under49c54$26 inWon+$27.541,06236.3%386 W · 676 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b63…eaacbacked Over50c53$27 inLost-$26.530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6501…ca39backed Under50c51.15$26 inWon+$25.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over53c36.28$19 inLost-$19.2397332.2%313 W · 660 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aab…2a65backed Over35c34.29$12 inLost-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110e…01c8backed Under74c27.34$20 inWon+$7.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Over56c20.46$11 inLost-$11.464731.9%15 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-50.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x545d…70ffbacked Over54c19.49$11 inLost-$10.521560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.