Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c80defc979c2d95eb934807427d77e7bbf195586036fbb3564e008829d03734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fenerbahçe SKof Olympique Lyonnais, Fenerbahçe SK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Olympique Lyonnais | 7c | 3,602$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.09 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Olympique Lyonnais | 25c | 2,953$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.16 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Fenerbahçe SK | 77c | 2,723$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 27c | 1,963$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…b849backed Fenerbahçe SK | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Fenerbahçe SK | 73c | 1,311$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.84 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Olympique Lyonnais | 12c | 955.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 498 | 40.4%201 W · 297 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 527.03$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.03 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Fenerbahçe SK | 73c | 204.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 269 | 31.6%85 W · 184 L | -22.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 26c | 153.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 150.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Olympique Lyonnais | 26c | 103.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 91.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Olympique Lyonnais | 27c | 79.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…81d6backed Olympique Lyonnais | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Fenerbahçe SK | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Olympique Lyonnais | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Fenerbahçe SK | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 664 | 46.2%307 W · 357 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 31.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…36f2backed Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…ce26backed Fenerbahçe SK | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fenerbahçe SK | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Fenerbahçe SK | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Fenerbahçe SK | 73c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Team to AdvanceFenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.