Champions League · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab3d543a6a2a8fd1528e1af2e5b6c2cbe550a6dea8bd38d15e4b86db878daa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 61c | 9,110$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,598.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 19c | 4,776$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.47 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 74c | 4,096$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.76 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 57c | 4,030$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 26c | 3,842$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.68 | 498 | 40.4%201 W · 297 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 2c | 3,041$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 968 | 37.4%362 W · 606 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Over | 47c | 2,789$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 42c | 2,616$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 41c | 2,089$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.69 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 43c | 1,721$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.21 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 18c | 1,679$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.14 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…b849backed Under | 73c | 1,365$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 773.32$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.21 | 614 | 37.5%230 W · 384 L | -27.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 41c | 695.37$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 64c | 695.06$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 570.02$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 269 | 31.6%85 W · 184 L | -22.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Under | 73c | 383.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Under | 53c | 290.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 42c | 289.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 15c | 282.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 664 | 46.2%307 W · 357 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 43c | 278.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 38c | 277.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 43c | 276.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 398 | 49.2%196 W · 202 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 211.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 36c | 202.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 40c | 162$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 16c | 148.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 910 | 32.6%297 W · 613 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 21c | 148.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 90 | 71.1%64 W · 26 L | +12.2wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 49c | 148.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 35c | 145.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 37c | 136.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…ba95backed Over | 39c | 133.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Under | 68c | 132.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 80c | 131.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Under | 68c | 129.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Under | 64c | 121.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 119.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 1,071 | 34.8%373 W · 698 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 33c | 96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…e9c9backed Under | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 21c | 76.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 216 | 43.5%94 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…e18ebacked Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Over | 26c | 75.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 389 | 53.7%209 W · 180 L | +21.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…244dbacked Under | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 43c | 67.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 174 | 51.7%90 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 48c | 51.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 39.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 181 | 49.2%89 W · 92 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 39.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Under | 66c | 34.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 71c | 32.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 48c | 27.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 277 | 50.2%139 W · 138 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Team to AdvanceFenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.