NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712311c03274616a94aa2ba095e8500dc9d9ec6f32d378af5c0c60b60f91adaa

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $325,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $325,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,418 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Nets	51c	311,223$158,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153,223.18	100	49%49 W · 51 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bulls	49c	175,141$85,819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85,819.22	262	53.8%141 W · 121 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bulls	49c	40,000$19,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,600	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls	50c	37,181$18,765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,765.39	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bulls	49c	20,020$9,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,909.8	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	49c	19,658$9,706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,706.08	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bulls	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls	49c	4,004$1,982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,981.96	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets	48c	2,360$1,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,227.29	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Nets	49c	2,109$1,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,075.75	142	54.9%78 W · 64 L	+9.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Bulls	50c	2,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Bulls	52c	1,735$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$902	173	56.6%98 W · 75 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls	49c	1,134$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.53	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls	49c	1,122$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.78	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bulls	50c	1,000$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.02	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets	50c	858.34$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.52	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bulls	50c	723.75$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.26	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Bulls	52c	600$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	250	39.6%99 W · 151 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bulls	50c	600$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	50c	438.01$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.09	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Bulls	52c	382.69$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Nets	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Bulls	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	156	53.8%84 W · 72 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Nets	49c	285.71$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.71	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Bulls	54c	255.56$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	271	61.3%166 W · 105 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Bulls	53c	250$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.5	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Nets	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Bulls	52c	165.02$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.81	217	53%115 W · 102 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cc…6bb9backed Bulls	52c	128.37$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.75	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-3.0wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-17%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74a7…69e4backed Bulls	53c	101.89$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets	47c	101.89$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Nets	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Bulls	52c	99.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	93	36.6%34 W · 59 L	-11.0wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb9a7…b64dbacked Bulls	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-7.1wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Bulls	50c	58.85$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.15	112	58.9%66 W · 46 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Bulls	52c	53.85$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Bulls	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	183	57.4%105 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa19f…f745backed Bulls	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bulls	49c	40.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Bulls	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15a…4e72backed Bulls	52c	37.12$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.40per pick	54cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Nets	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc52e…0a1cbacked Bulls	52c	26.92$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets	49c	22.89$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.68	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Nets	49c	21.76$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Bulls	50c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	448	44.2%198 W · 250 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Nets	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event