NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc648c7e6178bcce166d23fdb3be9115e60a32fcc366cefb1432153907f8735bc

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,408 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x067f…e041backed Under	50c	9,208$4,604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,604.1	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Under	52c	2,213$1,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,063.04	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	50c	1,686$843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	47c	1,509$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.43	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Under	53c	1,509$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$709.43	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	1,507$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.85	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over	50c	1,200$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under	52c	1,069$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.13	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7209…b3c1backed Over	45c	933.33$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	46c	786$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.56	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	46c	650$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	50c	633$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.5	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Over	46c	550$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over	47c	531.91$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under	51c	392.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.16	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Under	53c	250$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Under	50c	250$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	179	41.9%75 W · 104 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Over	49c	250$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94a5…018dbacked Over	47c	238.3$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	48c	232.48$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.58	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	51c	213.08$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.41	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Under	53c	199.99$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	46c	148.42$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.17	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over	46c	110.87$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	46c	78.59$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.15	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	50c	64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	245	52.7%129 W · 116 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over	50c	64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	50c	64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	50c	64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	106	46.2%49 W · 57 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	50c	64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50c1…6c6cbacked Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+52.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over	50c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	273	50.9%139 W · 134 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over	50c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	326	49.7%162 W · 164 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	50c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	50c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	318	52.2%166 W · 152 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa329…b651backed Over	47c	46.81$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	48c	43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over	50c	41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc08d…6a83backed Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over	50c	33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	55c	21.15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.52	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event