TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,628 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x527f…4c41backed Yes36c1,521$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.71520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e61…e2bebacked Yes45c1,470$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66870%0 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c1,329$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.271,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes23c540.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.022,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes36c535.47$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2759021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c458.8$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.712,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c386.02$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.185,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes40c332.7$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No68c301.06$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.21,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0050…cad1backed No57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1295350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No58c276.56$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6842754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No61c263.21$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c259.3$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.592,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No65c252$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.994,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes45c247$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.154,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes37c244.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9480130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c221.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.65,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes7c205.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.740525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No56c203.73$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.774,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c195.2$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No58c166$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes42c161.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4726441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes41c160$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.38245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes38c155.26$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c154$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.441,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No62c150$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.517255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes42c142.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c139.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.474,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c125.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.783,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c121.53$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.778,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c114.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.749,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c113.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.742,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes14c111.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.011,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes43c98.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No60c90.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No57c89.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No60c82$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.863143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.733,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No59c74.49$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c70.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.483,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed No61c70.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.16157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No65c63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1838860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7256048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c58.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.474,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.375,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes30c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No65c54.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.11,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No75c54.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.412,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes42c53.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes39c52.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes37c52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.242,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No59c51.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3149551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1729443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed No60c49.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8811344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No75c48.15$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2186952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No59c46.2$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.761,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No57c45.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4817633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No51c44.35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.731,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No58c43.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3929351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No59c43.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No58c43.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.093,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes41c42.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.537144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…8146backed Yes29c41.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No56c40.25$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.531,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9518…6c1ebacked No62c40.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2610671.7%76 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes36c39.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.049635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No66c37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5831564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes43c35.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3588…fb71backed No57c35.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.08714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-74.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes42c34.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.743559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No63c34.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8315553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed No59c34.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.026451.6%33 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No59c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefc…58febacked No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.96564.6%42 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf316…b4c2backed Yes33c33.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes38c33.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No59c32.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a6d…4abebacked No76c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.76969.6%48 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No73c31.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.432,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.364,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No58c29.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5446457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked No61c29.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7112072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9400…c740backed Yes35c29.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+103.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No68c28.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No65c24.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.461,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No62c24.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.152,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes45c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.882,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No59c22.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1244567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.