Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712e0bdc34d29031f507155954b44791416ef6ba5c8c67acb2b31f2b61d9e069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x527f…4c41backed Yes | 36c | 1,521$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e61…e2bebacked Yes | 45c | 1,470$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,329$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 540.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 36c | 535.47$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.27 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 458.8$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 386.02$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 40c | 332.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 301.06$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 58c | 276.56$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 61c | 263.21$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 259.3$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 252$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 247$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 244.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 221.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 7c | 205.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 203.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 195.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 58c | 166$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 42c | 161.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 155.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 154$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 62c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 139.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 125.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 121.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 114.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 113.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 111.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 98.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 60c | 90.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 57c | 89.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 74.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed No | 61c | 70.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 58.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 54.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 54.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 42c | 53.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 52.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 59c | 51.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 60c | 49.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 75c | 48.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 46.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 57c | 45.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 44.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 58c | 43.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 59c | 43.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 42.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…8146backed Yes | 29c | 41.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 40.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 62c | 40.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 36c | 39.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 43c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…fb71backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 63c | 34.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b4c2backed Yes | 33c | 33.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 33.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 32.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 31.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 58c | 29.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 61c | 29.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…c740backed Yes | 35c | 29.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 59c | 22.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.