Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359ea76ef51854049855b27ef74da5d94bb144862621b4924f962ed8e821c8b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 40c | 366.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.33 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 252.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 245.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.25 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 205.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 201.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 161.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 159.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 145.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 117.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 100.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 100.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 98.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 93.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 92.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 91.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 68c | 86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 59c | 84.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 72.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 62.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 37c | 60.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 60.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 57.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 53.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 52.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 49.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 48.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 47.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 43.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 41.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 40.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 64c | 39.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 31c | 39.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 39.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 54c | 37.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 35.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 35.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 33.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 71c | 33.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 31.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 27.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 26.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 80c | 25.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 67c | 25.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 19.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 64c | 19.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 59c | 17.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 69c | 17.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked Yes | 67c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.