Euroleague · resolved market
Panathinaikos vs. Valencia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71537d8191196e354b6fa5016e1de74ebf95dfee7a2f6cc1a1dd87e5493d1fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valenciaof Panathinaikos, Valencia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Valencia | 73c | 15,692$11,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,284.76 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Panathinaikos | 19c | 6,777$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.18 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…0e4abacked Panathinaikos | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Valencia | 75c | 2,463$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.44 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…9745backed Panathinaikos | 76c | 1,550$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Panathinaikos | 75c | 1,313$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.76 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Panathinaikos | 32c | 1,233$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.34 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Panathinaikos | 41c | 1,190$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.6 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Valencia | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Valencia | 25c | 927.1$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valencia | 35c | 883.01$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.6 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Valencia | 74c | 878.58$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.14 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1f…1224backed Panathinaikos | 51c | 690$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Valencia | 73c | 567.09$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Valencia | 24c | 450.01$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.86 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Panathinaikos | 72c | 438.81$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Panathinaikos | 73c | 436$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Panathinaikos | 62c | 405.46$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.66 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Valencia | 66c | 379.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Panathinaikos | 28c | 319$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Valencia | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…8becbacked Valencia | 29c | 208.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Valencia | 48c | 207.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65be…1c83backed Panathinaikos | 71c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Valencia | 41c | 145.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Panathinaikos | 20c | 135.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -8.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…cdffbacked Panathinaikos | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Valencia | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +69%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Valencia | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Panathinaikos | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Valencia | 25c | 70.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Valencia | 24c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Valencia | 24c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Panathinaikos | 76c | 53.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…3c5fbacked Panathinaikos | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Valencia | 22c | 49.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Panathinaikos | 33c | 47.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Panathinaikos | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Panathinaikos | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…4e6cbacked Panathinaikos | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…53f8backed Panathinaikos | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Panathinaikos | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84e6…d1dcbacked Panathinaikos | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Panathinaikos | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Panathinaikos | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Panathinaikos | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Panathinaikos | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Panathinaikos | 74c | 14.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…87c9backed Panathinaikos | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.40per pick | 58cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.