WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7199a3ebd0c9d32b1755981baa8603662a2e95155d80f5f3c39e1a883331d2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Aces | 29c | 2,103$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 68c | 1,533$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.59 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Aces | 36c | 970$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.2 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Mercury | 66c | 940.89$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…d2b9backed Aces | 36c | 680$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mercury | 63c | 630.41$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.25 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mercury | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mercury | 78c | 532.73$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Aces | 35c | 494.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 62c | 494.42$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.88 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Mercury | 72c | 391.86$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.13 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Aces | 34c | 286.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Aces | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Aces | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Mercury | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Aces | 24c | 228.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Mercury | 65c | 225$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Aces | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mercury | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Aces | 36c | 122.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Aces | 14c | 114.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed Mercury | 79c | 92.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Aces | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Mercury | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Aces | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 76c | 35.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Aces | 38c | 31.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed Mercury | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Mercury | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…c530backed Mercury | 65c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.