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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,890 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40a…e4a2backed No70c657.44$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8412258.2%71 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes52c586.12$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410024%24 W · 76 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c489.79$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1747137.6%177 W · 294 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes5c480$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes25c425.67$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.494323.3%10 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes8c399.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.314717%25 W · 122 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes16c310.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.957935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes18c234.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes68c221.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes14c210$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4815635.9%56 W · 100 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes23c203$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.135916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No74c197.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.984353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes19c192.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.731145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No74c184.07$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.621464%137 W · 77 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe547…271dbacked Yes12c180$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.343420.6%7 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+176%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes14c166.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.045736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes77c166.47$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.071030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-60.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes25c164.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c157.56$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4325652%133 W · 123 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No78c152.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3910868.5%74 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No75c145.81$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.971283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No28c140$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c139.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4912030%36 W · 84 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes24c133.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.546157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No73c131.05$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.923355.8%130 W · 103 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No74c126.35$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4617750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes15c123.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2143649.5%216 W · 220 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No79c120.21$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.347160.6%43 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb76a…d7ebbacked No75c114$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.021866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes21c112.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7926136.8%96 W · 165 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes17c111$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c110.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7639813.8%55 W · 343 L-72.7wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes13c103.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.474916.3%8 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No65c99.93$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4416851.2%86 W · 82 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No77c99.14$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8618053.3%96 W · 84 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes12c95.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.772825%7 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes21c95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.953423.5%8 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No41c94.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0955351.2%283 W · 270 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No72c91.74$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.743669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c91.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.037330.1%22 W · 51 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes14c90.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313235.6%47 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No71c90.59$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.978359%49 W · 34 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes23c90.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.298248.8%40 W · 42 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No33c89.92$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.69140.7%37 W · 54 L+14.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+26%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No68c85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.841573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes33c84.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286642.4%28 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No72c82$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No71c81.84$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246253.2%33 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes19c79.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes29c79.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.793630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes31c75.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.988341%34 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes75c73.68$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.261250%6 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No70c73.64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1717055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2517537.7%66 W · 109 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes19c69.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.426914.5%10 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes24c69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.515347.2%25 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed Yes16c68.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.33per pick70cpaid-51%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No51c67.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.312853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4550…0f28backed No74c67.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked Yes74c67.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick71cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes34c66.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.526046.7%28 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No66c62.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3915954.7%87 W · 72 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ac…cae8backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+48.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c61.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0119949.2%98 W · 101 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes28c57.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.929637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No69c57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.73580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No74c56.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0116455.5%91 W · 73 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c56.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1534140.2%137 W · 204 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed No77c56.05$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes34c54.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.533351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+49.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f0d…98d2backed No77c51.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes51c51.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed No63c51.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes21c51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152937.9%11 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes44c46.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3413140.5%53 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No67c44.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5117954.2%97 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.510073%73 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No76c41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.842470.8%17 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No34c40.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.257146.5%33 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes30c40.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.216429.7%19 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32fb…fae7backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes39c38.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No61c38.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9315746.5%73 W · 84 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.985164.7%33 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes39c36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.043234.4%11 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…b105backed No79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.354386%37 W · 6 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes72c34.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick75cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No74c34.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9916357.1%93 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked No74c33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.736845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c30.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4418734.8%65 W · 122 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d88…6adebacked Yes36c30.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes75c27.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick63cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No63c25.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7115754.1%85 W · 72 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048e…233fbacked Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No80c22.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+58.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No71c21.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.063964.1%25 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.