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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6715…9365backed Yes23c2,439$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.4810024%24 W · 76 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes14c1,409$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.115824.1%14 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c1,149$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6514717%25 W · 122 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes26c400$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8312540%50 W · 75 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x743d…5abdbacked Yes31c313.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No74c289.38$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7730944%136 W · 173 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes10c275.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.413630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes20c250.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.327423%17 W · 57 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f64…452abacked No73c205.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c184.06$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0421464%137 W · 77 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes26c167.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes9c166.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92937.9%11 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c165$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3715635.9%56 W · 100 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c164$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.643649.5%216 W · 220 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c160$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4331953.3%170 W · 149 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No73c143.9$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.718359%49 W · 34 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No69c143.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.473554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+24.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes18c142.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.275916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No76c115.92$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.923171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes17c115.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No69c114.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2411453.5%61 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes17c110.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.694436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No71c109$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd98…4cb2backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252544%11 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510943.1%47 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes26c93.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.347051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c89.41$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8134140.2%137 W · 204 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c84.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5533855.3%187 W · 151 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e0…25f9backed Yes27c73.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes28c71.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.762334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No70c69.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.995152.9%27 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010357.3%59 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No76c64.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7519869.2%137 W · 61 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No72c63.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.77277.8%56 W · 16 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+28.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No71c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No72c58.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9826136.8%96 W · 165 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No71c58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7913743.8%60 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes23c54.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.489637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.632075%15 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No76c49.21$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6146329.4%136 W · 327 L-69.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No78c48.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.817750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes30c46.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.775742.1%24 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes27c45.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.287346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No77c44.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.33461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes23c44.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No66c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.96666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7224760.3%149 W · 98 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c43.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518956.6%107 W · 82 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90aa…bb09backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No72c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6413100%13 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x742a…fa07backed Yes28c36.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes34c35.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c31.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6136154.8%198 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No74c31.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.934151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68683.7%72 W · 14 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick76cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No77c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3622955.5%127 W · 102 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No74c27.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.14872.9%35 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No73c26.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.058556.5%48 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4b…6ea9backed No72c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No68c25.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1610057%57 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No67c23.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.73966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.931968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No67c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.932157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No79c20.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No70c20.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.125538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13c…fc9bbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…1ca0backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.415454.5%84 W · 70 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.46839.7%27 W · 41 L-11.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.95560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No77c19.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.49366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4811942%50 W · 69 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No79c19.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.996269.4%43 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No73c18.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.911752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No69c17.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.520964.1%134 W · 75 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77a4…c217backed No74c17.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.47366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No75c16.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1417459.8%104 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c16.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0355351.2%283 W · 270 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No79c14.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.055764.9%37 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked No72c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c13.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.391,35044.4%600 W · 750 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.