World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd25751601a4a33b7ae1811cab5204e52aac9b3d681fdc90ce28d2e983e75912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 27c | 1,018$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.06 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 698.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.47 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 624.35$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.5 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 524.72$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.75 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 419$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.95 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 378$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.82 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 47c | 359.46$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.85 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 327.46$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 52c | 255.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 239.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 229.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 44c | 205$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 188$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 181.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 56c | 176.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 58c | 154.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 49c | 144$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 132.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 233 | 55.8%130 W · 103 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 131.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 50c | 130.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 123.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 121.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 116.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 45c | 111.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 45c | 109.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 109.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 398 | 13.8%55 W · 343 L | -72.7wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 25c | 97.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 100 | 73%73 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 90.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 53c | 87.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 46c | 87.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 86.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 38c | 83.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 42c | 82.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 82.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 79.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…bb66backed Yes | 36c | 79.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 35c | 78.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 65c | 75.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 190 | 37.9%72 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 74.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 51c | 74.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 72.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 72.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 70c | 71.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 71cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 69.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 66.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 43c | 66.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 65.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 49c | 65.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 64.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 62.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 187 | 34.8%65 W · 122 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5e…f1b0backed No | 76c | 61.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 49c | 59.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 57.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed No | 55c | 50.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 55c | 50.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 50.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 48c | 50.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 47c | 49.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 27c | 47.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…b6a5backed No | 63c | 47.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…ef13backed No | 63c | 47.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 47.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 57c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 46.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 46.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…d5fbbacked No | 63c | 45.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 37c | 42.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 42.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742a…fa07backed Yes | 57c | 40.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes | 50c | 40.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.