Champions League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71d12f80b5c6183315cdf2244a6fe996bf2ecbbe7fa899ea840eab9854089c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 6,309$4,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.82 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 36c | 2,830$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.99 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 40c | 2,094$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 67c | 1,792$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.3 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 60c | 1,674$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.75 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Over | 40c | 1,600$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 64c | 1,112$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.49 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed Under | 58c | 863.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 37c | 841.1$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.25 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 40c | 642.5$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Under | 61c | 573.77$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 38c | 543.42$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.07 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…0791backed Over | 50c | 504.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 61c | 369$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Under | 53c | 333$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked Over | 34c | 270.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 52c | 257.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 254$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Over | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 34c | 246.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 169.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 41c | 159.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 148.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 57c | 133.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b0…15e1backed Over | 40c | 115.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 13c | 114.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 40c | 97.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 37c | 92.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 55c | 72.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 61c | 71.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 42c | 65.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Over | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 53c | 60.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 57.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over | 37c | 56.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 38c | 46.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…ead7backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…8797backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 60c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 38c | 36.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 64c | 35.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 34c | 32.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…fa4dbacked Under | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0268…6944backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…ffe8backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 74c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 66c | 25.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 78c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.