Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e439bd1043645c32510e395319d5aa0be38be8c8d406a448066557b9081341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 1,192$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 849.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 556.39$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 543.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 542.6$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 402.75$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 19c | 368$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 338$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 78c | 303.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 61c | 297.09$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 271.96$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 28c | 264.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 263.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 196$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 179.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 170.72$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 27c | 170.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 161.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 134.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 132.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 128.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 125.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 118.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 113.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 109.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 29c | 107.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 42c | 105.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 21c | 105.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 103.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 103.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 29c | 99.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 21c | 95.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 63c | 81.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9c6dbacked No | 67c | 76.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 17c | 61.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 59.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 34c | 58.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 28c | 58.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 57.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 56.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 55.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 36c | 54.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 54.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 50.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 49.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2f8dbacked Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 45.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 44.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 44.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 42.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…0370backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 55c | 32.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 30.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 64c | 25.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 64c | 23.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 79c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad0…7733backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.