TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,146

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes56c1,150$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.451,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No41c813.29$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4738243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No34c653.23$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes46c373.89$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.912747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No46c356.04$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No41c337$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes61c296$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.444,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No48c266.34$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes48c260.81$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.491,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes36c260.07$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5617536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes58c243.44$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No50c216.83$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5342762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes64c180.74$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes59c174.51$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5520452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes60c172.11$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.165,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.939938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed No31c161$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3226025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes47c160.02$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.912259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes70c149.96$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9918641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No45c148.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.624,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes54c144.05$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3828368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No41c138.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.641,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c125.23$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.674,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes59c118.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.644753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No41c102.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.451,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5552758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes56c97.67$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4631454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes51c96.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1119252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No53c93.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.320569.8%143 W · 62 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No16c91.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No42c90.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1961821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2572…80dbbacked Yes59c86.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5814446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.12,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes47c85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0546148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…d8e3backed No41c84.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.134153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ed…e634backed Yes58c82.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.32630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes59c82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6213834.8%48 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No41c81.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.354,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf4…e2e1backed No41c77.48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a5…abfdbacked Yes73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes51c68.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.782,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes61c67.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.011,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes67c67.32$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3231943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No41c66.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4430834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked No44c66.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.117247.7%82 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes47c63.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.471,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c59.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.053,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes48c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.041,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No43c51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.936845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ec3…d814backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb67…970abacked Yes60c49.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.671752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No38c49.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.771,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Yes56c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.683330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7340461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1418247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes59c39.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3228546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes68c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3538560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No57c34.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.964351.2%22 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes48c34.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.013,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes56c34.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.184,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No34c34.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.772,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a06…105fbacked Yes52c30.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.641723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-52.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No41c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.071,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed Yes59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.077245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…2f8dbacked Yes45c26.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes58c26.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.146857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No49c25.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.619861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.564,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes54c24.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3914243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No64c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.361,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf2…b206backed Yes62c21.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331650%8 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.28652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.880962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f94…207ebacked Yes73c18.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.