TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,459

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes7c4,666$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.743,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes16c988.59$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.37143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes26c650.08$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes3c494.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8518116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed No76c462.36$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8610845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed Yes34c405.89$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3622857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes3c375$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5561820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c312$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28d9…7275backed Yes25c297.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.811020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x185b…0f27backed No75c278.79$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.61973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6260…6b21backed Yes19c255.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.324511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c245.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d83…d948backed No80c241.26$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c235.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c219.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.971,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes32c203.55$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.941,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb69…06a9backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014252.1%74 W · 68 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x338f…6822backed Yes17c191.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.537847.4%37 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked Yes19c174.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5815152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x381c…aae8backed Yes17c164.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes28c164.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1729748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No71c149.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.18361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes19c138.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes16c134.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.481,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes17c133.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9327744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes30c132.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1551537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes17c119.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.415437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked Yes29c110.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1616631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd496…00ecbacked Yes23c106.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes29c105.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6956118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes14c102.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes47c100.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.720445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed No71c98.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5217838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes22c97.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4611129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes22c96.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1416030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes18c95.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7435429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes35c93.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8226933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c86.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.143,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No80c85.54$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4639157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c83.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed No77c79.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.194963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes21c75.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7918327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7af1…5a2dbacked No76c73.04$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.541020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed Yes20c67.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.733458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x362f…b8eabacked No79c61.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.645549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes19c60.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6560121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c59.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked No79c51.9$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7646148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes36c51.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.524139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33fa…c278backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.521,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42e1…8148backed Yes30c48.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.452634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x375d…62c5backed Yes30c46.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.958325.3%21 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a1c…1d5abacked No77c38.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.882065%13 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed No60c36.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.739147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No80c36.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No52c32.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.72,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x936b…0e39backed No64c31.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.342181%17 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46f…3cbcbacked No65c29.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.344742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No62c28.04$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.581,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x245e…eab4backed No80c27.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.58574.1%63 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick77cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c22.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.529,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No65c21.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No71c21.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1312670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No71c20.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9512962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No79c19.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.151,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e43…2e9cbacked No80c17.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.472458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c17.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.642,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No68c16.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe798…5204backed No73c14.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.992142.9%9 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x02cd…cedcbacked No78c12.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.842369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick78cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.