Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f55f2eedd1fb25adaa9110bb30729124af39522e028e5acf8bda82e6104210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 4,666$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 16c | 988.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 650.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 3c | 494.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 76c | 462.36$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 34c | 405.89$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 375$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 25c | 297.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 75c | 278.79$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 19c | 255.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 245.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…d948backed No | 80c | 241.26$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 235.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 219.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 203.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 17c | 191.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 19c | 174.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…aae8backed Yes | 17c | 164.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 28c | 164.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 71c | 149.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 138.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 134.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 17c | 133.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 30c | 132.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 29c | 110.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked Yes | 23c | 106.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 105.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 102.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes | 47c | 100.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 71c | 98.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 22c | 97.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 22c | 96.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 18c | 95.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 35c | 93.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 86.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 80c | 85.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 83.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 77c | 79.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 21c | 75.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked No | 76c | 73.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 20c | 67.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 79c | 61.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 60.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 79c | 51.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 36c | 51.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…c278backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 30c | 48.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…1d5abacked No | 77c | 38.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 36.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 52c | 32.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…0e39backed No | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 65c | 29.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 28.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 65c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 71c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 80c | 17.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 68c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 73c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.