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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,815 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes4c1,801$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7336930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b6…3db6backed Yes2c895$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.012040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes3c773.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes8c675.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9710845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c542.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.972,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…6b21backed Yes3c500.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.524511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No73c434.91$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.913,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed No78c434.15$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.343458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes5c423.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x499c…875fbacked No77c308.85$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes6c284.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.357,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8699…f6bebacked Yes5c280.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.819440.4%38 W · 56 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+51.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.53823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes9c250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3530813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No73c246.2$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.541,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c246.08$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f4…665ebacked No70c236.65$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9214264.1%91 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes6c230$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9524921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes31c226.09$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes16c223.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2886226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes7c223.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3625449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes30c219.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6656118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes22c213.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6411140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No70c199.21$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1660121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes31c160$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.62934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac28…f2d4backed Yes33c157.72$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.822227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes35c150.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5519648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c3…d152backed Yes22c146.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.613435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338f…6822backed Yes8c146.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.277847.4%37 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed Yes30c143.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4618333.3%61 W · 122 L-17.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd44a…5130backed No77c142.76$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.31887.5%7 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick76cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes33c142.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5127328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No77c141.85$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9788028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c139.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes27c126.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6646452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes35c120.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0827744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c105.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.771,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed Yes15c104.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.345521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes23c101.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.541020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes17c100.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.131,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3516626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes21c99.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5771…b356backed No65c96.24$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes28c93.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8515437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes22c89.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3966926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No76c86.86$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8511569.6%80 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c84.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c76.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.552,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.179,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes20c69.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7115722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c68.96$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8381165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes15c68.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.339931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes27c67.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6117231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes26c67.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4412348%59 W · 64 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c65.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1186173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…6dbfbacked No74c65.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c65.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.093,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7d…87f5backed Yes25c64.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c61.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.083,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Yes25c60.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.149150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.976479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes23c57.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2547432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes23c56.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x381c…aae8backed Yes34c54.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.681127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes34c54.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.697736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes31c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.57425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c49.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.871,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No73c47.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes23c46.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7917838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c44.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.092,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes34c41.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8856131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05ee…93abbacked No74c39.49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278872.7%64 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb201…2766backed Yes35c38.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.613946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No66c36.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4111977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x969a…7850backed No74c36.16$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.36100%6 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95b8…95c4backed No79c32.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.783775.7%28 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No68c29.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5734457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a4…2895backed No71c29.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.453250%16 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c64…be43backed No66c28.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8514461.8%89 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2833373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No76c25.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1722265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a99…1838backed No79c24.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.179770.1%68 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No73c24.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.578466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No71c21.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1424370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354e…c0b2backed No70c20.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.123246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3584…98a6backed No77c19.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.381190.9%10 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick77cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5df…bc23backed No72c15.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.262263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48d4…88ddbacked No74c14.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff9d…362dbacked No73c14.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.94757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick76cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.