Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x096e70c9c9bd60ac53bdc1193767a6f1d098e1a474b12b73c687f8b08633b746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 4c | 1,801$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 2c | 895$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 773.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 8c | 675.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 542.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 3c | 500.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 73c | 434.91$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 78c | 434.15$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 423.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…875fbacked No | 77c | 308.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 284.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 5c | 280.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 9c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 246.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 246.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 236.65$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 6c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 31c | 226.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 223.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 7c | 223.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 30c | 219.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 22c | 213.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 70c | 199.21$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…f2d4backed Yes | 33c | 157.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 35c | 150.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 22c | 146.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 8c | 146.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 30c | 143.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…5130backed No | 77c | 142.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 76cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 33c | 142.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 77c | 141.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 139.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 27c | 126.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 120.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 105.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 15c | 104.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes | 23c | 101.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 100.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 21c | 99.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…b356backed No | 65c | 96.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 28c | 93.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 89.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 76c | 86.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 84.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 76.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 20c | 69.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 68.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 15c | 68.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 27c | 67.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 26c | 67.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 65.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…6dbfbacked No | 74c | 65.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 65.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…87f5backed Yes | 25c | 64.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 61.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 25c | 60.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 57.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 56.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…aae8backed Yes | 34c | 54.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 34c | 54.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 47.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 23c | 46.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 44.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 74c | 39.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 35c | 38.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 66c | 36.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…7850backed No | 74c | 36.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 79c | 32.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 68c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 79c | 24.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 73c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 70c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3584…98a6backed No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…88ddbacked No | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…362dbacked No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.