TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,101
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,101 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed No2c21,082$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.233,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd3…d6b3backed No1c2,422$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed Yes76c1,991$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.0522857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No20c1,037$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8460121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes39c987.43$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.537143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes63c699.15$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.141,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes36c669.77$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.962626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No50c500.23$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.982,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes78c456.86$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.531,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac28…f2d4backed Yes38c383.2$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.752227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked No64c356.95$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.316631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No65c346.5$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c311.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6481165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed No64c299.81$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8329748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c282$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No5c256.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2353547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c253.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.671516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f4…665ebacked No66c217.89$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7714264.1%91 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe019…f862backed Yes25c210.73$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4628021.8%61 W · 219 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14819071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb69…06a9backed Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13214252.1%74 W · 68 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No37c187.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2228839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes28c179.1$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2215437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c175.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No62c155.16$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.253437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c8c…f5e2backed No62c155.16$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.22729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c146.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.757,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes37c146.03$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.119648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes39c120.35$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.427744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes45c115.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.351537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes40c114.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes44c110.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5452935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes30c109.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4711140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c108.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.297,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes40c107.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.571,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes32c107.26$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8256118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8387…3b83backed Yes56c104.21$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7045127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6512348%59 W · 64 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4c3…d152backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No61c99.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9844646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No63c96.95$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No32c95.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.514,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes41c90.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c90$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.93,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes34c81.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5617838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed Yes35c80.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.283458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No62c79.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.598361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No29c77.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8139157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No17c70.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8439159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde08…b228backed No71c68.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.553366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c67.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6686173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.042,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes24c59.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes32c55.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.043336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c9ebacked No25c54.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes64c53.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5910845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes39c52.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes36c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2824029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06c3…ec62backed Yes37c50.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes35c50.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.576144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x375d…62c5backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318325.3%21 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No62c49.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6234151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x381c…aae8backed Yes38c49.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.491127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f9…cf15backed No62c48.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No28c48.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7635854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes36c46.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.951145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No26c45.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.081,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes29c45.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4818327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No60c45.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354e…c0b2backed No63c44.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.833246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes43c43.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8115047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes36c41.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af1…5a2dbacked No71c41.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.121020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No25c40.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.41926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb201…2766backed Yes38c38.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.953946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No62c37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.082,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes34c35.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1746452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No64c34.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.091,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes38c31.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.67736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c31.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.35,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No63c30.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3462…16b6backed Yes76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c29.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.134,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No65c29.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3119772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fce…8d41backed Yes78c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No74c26.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8733373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c24.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8779…9e68backed Yes51c24.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c23.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…70c5backed Yes62c23.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No53c20.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0342049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No67c20.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.