Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x728ce7ec5ffb290ed32d302a273163f28a052c792921f877051cab5289b445fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 2c | 21,082$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…d6b3backed No | 1c | 2,422$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 76c | 1,991$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.05 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 1,037$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.84 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 39c | 987.43$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.53 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 63c | 699.15$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.14 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 36c | 669.77$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 500.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 456.86$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…f2d4backed Yes | 38c | 383.2$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.75 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 64c | 356.95$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 65c | 346.5$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.59 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 64c | 299.81$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.83 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 282$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 5c | 256.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 253.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 66c | 217.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 25c | 210.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.46 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 37c | 187.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 28c | 179.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 175.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 62c | 155.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed No | 62c | 155.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 146.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 37c | 146.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 39c | 120.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 45c | 115.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 114.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 44c | 110.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 30c | 109.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 108.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 107.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 32c | 107.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…3b83backed Yes | 56c | 104.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 61c | 99.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 63c | 96.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 95.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes | 41c | 90.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 34c | 81.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 35c | 80.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 62c | 79.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 29c | 77.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 17c | 70.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 71c | 68.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 67.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 59.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 32c | 55.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c9ebacked No | 25c | 54.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 64c | 53.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 52.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…ec62backed Yes | 37c | 50.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 35c | 50.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 49.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…aae8backed Yes | 38c | 49.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 62c | 48.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 28c | 48.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 26c | 45.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 29c | 45.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 45.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 63c | 44.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 43c | 43.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 41.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked No | 71c | 41.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 40.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 38c | 38.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 34c | 35.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 34.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 38c | 31.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 31.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 63c | 30.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 29.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 65c | 29.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…8d41backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 24.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8779…9e68backed Yes | 51c | 24.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 23.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed Yes | 62c | 23.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 53c | 20.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 20.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.