Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720db0bf1a2b276439056ff0552239519a5d13b7e76884f7fde5f9b74413b4ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Portoof VfB Stuttgart, FC Porto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,194 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Porto | 75c | 3,677$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.1 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed VfB Stuttgart | 24c | 2,194$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.04 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…6b75backed FC Porto | 77c | 1,685$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 1,216$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Porto | 75c | 1,148$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.34 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed FC Porto | 76c | 975.23$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.82 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FC Porto | 74c | 709.25$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 671.14$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.77 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 650.47$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 499.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked VfB Stuttgart | 24c | 461.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed FC Porto | 76c | 303.33$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked VfB Stuttgart | 29c | 266.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…e82fbacked FC Porto | 77c | 228.44$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked FC Porto | 75c | 209.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed VfB Stuttgart | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 200.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed FC Porto | 76c | 164.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 26c | 115.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 88.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed FC Porto | 74c | 86.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed VfB Stuttgart | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed VfB Stuttgart | 26c | 77.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked FC Porto | 78c | 77.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 75.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed VfB Stuttgart | 27c | 65.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked FC Porto | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked VfB Stuttgart | 27c | 55.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed FC Porto | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed FC Porto | 76c | 34.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked FC Porto | 76c | 32.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked FC Porto | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked FC Porto | 78c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked FC Porto | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed FC Porto | 76c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked FC Porto | 73c | 19.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…af6ebacked FC Porto | 76c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)this page
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Porto won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.